Thermal performances of invasive Aedes: integrating field phenotype data with arbovirus transmission models to enhance disease prediction and control under climate change scenarios

Prof. Sulaiman S. Ibrahim and Dr Ilaria Dorigatti (Imperial College London) are using data from field caught mosquitoes in Nigeria to predict the climate change effects on mosquito-borne diseases. This project (www.medicalresearchfoundation.org.uk/projects/predicting-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-risk-of-mosquito-borne-diseases) aim to study the impact of variation in temperature and humidity on the fitness of Aedes, the mosquito that transmits dengue, zika, yellow fever, and other deadly arboviruses. It was awarded in 2024 and spans three years (2025-2027).

The mosquitoes are currently being collected along contrasting ecological settings across Nigeria and getting tested to establish the impact of these environmental variables on their ability to blood feed, lay eggs and survive, as well as the speed of their development.

Data generated will be fed into mathematical models that mimic the transmission of viruses from mosquitoes to humans. This will enable us to study the effect of current and future environmental variables (i.e., changing climate scenarios) on the risk of infection faced by populations living in proximity of these mosquitoes around the world - including those who are not currently exposed but could be affected by the diseases in the future.